Winning a prediction market trade means nothing if the market doesn't resolve correctly. Resolution risk is the least discussed cost of prediction market trading. A disputed resolution can delay your payout by days or weeks. An incorrect resolution can cost you a winning position entirely.
This tracker shows how markets resolve across platforms: average resolution time, dispute frequency, oracle reliability scores, and specific examples of contested outcomes. Use it to assess resolution risk before entering a position, especially on decentralized platforms where oracle governance determines outcomes.
Resolution Tracker Tool
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Frequently Asked Questions
What does market resolution mean?
Resolution is when a prediction market outcome is officially determined and winning positions are paid out. On centralized platforms like Kalshi, the platform determines resolution. On decentralized platforms like Azuro, oracles or governance votes determine outcomes.
How often do prediction market resolutions get disputed?
Disputes are relatively rare on established platforms. Polymarket has a dispute mechanism through UMA's optimistic oracle. Kalshi resolutions are determined internally. The tracker shows dispute rates per platform and per market category so you can assess resolution risk before trading.
What is an oracle in prediction markets?
An oracle is a mechanism that brings real-world data on-chain to resolve prediction market contracts. UMA (used by Polymarket), Chainlink, and custom governance systems are common oracle solutions. Oracle reliability directly affects whether your winning positions pay out correctly.
Can I see resolution history for specific platforms?
Yes. The tracker shows resolution history filtered by platform, category, and time period. You can see how quickly markets resolved, whether any disputes occurred, and the final outcomes.
Is this tool free?
Yes, completely free. Browse resolution data across all tracked platforms without signup.