Is This Casino Bonus Actually Worth It? The Math Behind Crypto Casino Bonuses

“200% match up to $1,000!” “Get $500 free with your first deposit!” Casino bonuses sound incredible. And sometimes they are. But more often than not, the wagering requirements attached to these bonuses mean you’ll lose the entire bonus — and possibly some of your own money — before you’re ever allowed to withdraw.

We’re going to teach you the actual mathematics behind casino bonuses so you can calculate whether any given offer is genuinely worth taking. By the end of this guide, you’ll be able to look at any bonus and know, within a few percentage points, whether it’s a good deal (+EV) or a trap (-EV). We’ve also built a free bonus EV calculator that does the math for you.

The Core Concept: Expected Value (EV)

Expected value is the average amount you can expect to win or lose from a given action over many repetitions. A positive expected value (+EV) means the bonus is mathematically worth taking. A negative expected value (-EV) means you’ll lose money on average.

For casino bonuses, the EV calculation boils down to a simple question: Is the bonus amount larger than the expected losses you’ll incur while meeting the wagering requirements?

The Formula

Here’s the formula in its simplest form:

Bonus EV = Bonus Amount − (Total Wagering × House Edge)

Where:

• Bonus Amount = the bonus cash you receive
• Total Wagering = Bonus Amount × Wagering Requirement multiplier
• House Edge = the weighted average house edge of the games you’ll play

If the result is positive, the bonus has positive expected value. If negative, you’re expected to lose money by taking it.

A Quick Example

A casino offers a 100% match bonus up to $200 with a 30x wagering requirement on slots with a 4% house edge.

• Bonus Amount: $200
• Total Wagering: $200 × 30 = $6,000
• Expected Loss: $6,000 × 0.04 = $240
• Bonus EV: $200 − $240 = −$40

This bonus has a negative expected value of -$40. On average, you’ll lose $40 of your own deposited money by accepting this bonus. Ouch.

Understanding Wagering Requirements

Wagering requirements (also called “playthrough requirements”) dictate how much you must bet before bonus funds become withdrawable. They’re the single most important factor in determining whether a bonus is worth taking.

How Wagering Requirements Work

If you receive a $100 bonus with a 40x wagering requirement, you must place $4,000 in total bets before you can withdraw any bonus-related winnings. That’s not $4,000 in losses — it’s $4,000 in total wagers. Every bet counts toward the requirement, win or lose.

Wagering on Bonus Only vs Bonus + Deposit

This distinction is crucial and often buried in the fine print:

• Wagering on bonus only: 40x on a $100 bonus = $4,000 in total wagers
• Wagering on bonus + deposit: 40x on a $100 bonus + $100 deposit = $8,000 in total wagers

The second scenario requires double the wagering, cutting the bonus value roughly in half. Always check whether the wagering applies to the bonus alone or the bonus plus deposit combined.

Typical Wagering Requirements in Crypto Casinos

Casino	Welcome Bonus	Wagering	Applies To
Stake	200% up to $1,000	40x	Bonus only
BC.Game	Up to 360% (4 tiers)	40-60x	Bonus only
Shuffle	100% up to $1,000	35x	Bonus only
BitStarz	100% up to 1 BTC	40x	Bonus + deposit
Roobet	Varies	30x	Bonus only

Game Contribution Rates: The Hidden Variable

Not all games count equally toward wagering requirements. Casinos assign “contribution rates” that determine how much of each bet counts toward your playthrough.

Typical Contribution Rates

Game Type	Typical Contribution	Why
Slots	100%	High house edge, fast play
Scratch Cards	100%	High house edge
Video Poker	10-20%	Low house edge with optimal strategy
Blackjack	10-20%	Low house edge with basic strategy
Roulette	20-50%	Moderate house edge
Baccarat	10-15%	Low house edge on banker bet
Live Dealer	10-20%	Low house edge games
Craps	5-10%	Very low house edge on pass/don’t pass
Sports Betting	0-10%	Player can achieve near-zero margin

Why This Matters for EV

If blackjack only contributes 10% to wagering, a $10 bet on blackjack only counts as $1 toward your requirement. To clear a $4,000 wagering requirement playing only blackjack at 10% contribution, you’d need to place $40,000 in actual bets.

The house edge on $40,000 of blackjack (0.5% with basic strategy) = $200 in expected losses. Compare that to $4,000 of slots at 4% house edge = $160 in expected losses. Counterintuitively, even though blackjack has a lower house edge per bet, the reduced contribution rate makes it more expensive for clearing bonuses.

The Contribution-Adjusted Formula

Here’s the refined EV formula that accounts for contribution rates:

Bonus EV = Bonus Amount − (Effective Wagering × House Edge)

Where:

Effective Wagering = (Bonus Amount × Wagering Requirement) ÷ Contribution Rate

Worked Examples: When Is a Bonus +EV?

Example 1: Shuffle — 100% up to $1,000, 35x wagering

Deposit: $1,000 → Bonus: $1,000

Playing slots (100% contribution, 4% house edge):

• Total wagering: $1,000 × 35 = $35,000
• Expected loss: $35,000 × 0.04 = $1,400
• Bonus EV: $1,000 − $1,400 = −$400

This bonus is -EV on pure mathematics. However, Shuffle also provides daily cashback (5-15% of net losses with no wagering). If we factor in 10% cashback on the expected $1,400 loss:

• Cashback recovery: $1,400 × 0.10 = $140
• Adjusted EV: $1,000 − $1,400 + $140 = −$260

Still negative, but the cashback softens the blow significantly.

Example 2: A Hypothetical +EV Bonus

Bonus: 100% up to $200 with 15x wagering (bonus only)

Playing slots (100% contribution, 3% house edge — selecting low-edge slots like Blood Suckers at 1.3% or Mega Joker at 1%):

• Total wagering: $200 × 15 = $3,000
• Expected loss (at 1.5% average edge on selected slots): $3,000 × 0.015 = $45
• Bonus EV: $200 − $45 = +$155

This bonus is solidly +EV. You’d expect to walk away with $155 in profit on average. Bonuses with wagering requirements under 20x on games with house edges under 2% are often +EV.

Example 3: BC.Game — 360% Across 4 Deposits

BC.Game’s multi-tier bonus looks incredible on paper:

• 1st deposit: 180% match (40x wagering)
• 2nd deposit: 240% match (50x wagering)
• 3rd deposit: 300% match (55x wagering)
• 4th deposit: 360% match (60x wagering)

Let’s calculate the 4th deposit tier ($100 deposit, $360 bonus):

• Total wagering: $360 × 60 = $21,600
• Expected loss on slots (4% edge): $21,600 × 0.04 = $864
• Bonus EV: $360 − $864 = −$504

That 360% headline is deeply misleading. The 60x wagering requirement makes this one of the worst-value bonuses we’ve analysed. You’d need to deposit $504 of your own money just to break even in expectation.

Example 4: Stake — 200% up to $1,000, 40x wagering

Deposit: $500 → Bonus: $1,000

Playing a mix of low-edge slots (targeting 2.5% average house edge):

• Total wagering: $1,000 × 40 = $40,000
• Expected loss: $40,000 × 0.025 = $1,000
• Bonus EV: $1,000 − $1,000 = $0 (break-even)

Interesting — Stake’s bonus is approximately break-even if you carefully select low-edge slots. If you play average slots (4% edge), it becomes -EV. If you can find slots under 2% edge, it tips into +EV territory.

The Break-Even Wagering Requirement

Knowing the maximum wagering requirement that makes a bonus +EV is useful. The formula:

Break-Even Wagering = Bonus % ÷ House Edge

For a 100% match bonus on slots with a 4% house edge:

• Break-even = 1.00 ÷ 0.04 = 25x

Any wagering requirement above 25x makes a 100% match bonus -EV on 4% house edge games.

For a 200% match bonus:

• Break-even = 2.00 ÷ 0.04 = 50x

The higher the match percentage, the higher wagering you can tolerate before the bonus turns -EV.

Break-Even Table

Match %	2% House Edge	3% House Edge	4% House Edge	5% House Edge
50%	25x	16.7x	12.5x	10x
100%	50x	33.3x	25x	20x
150%	75x	50x	37.5x	30x
200%	100x	66.7x	50x	40x
300%	150x	100x	75x	60x

This table tells you instantly whether a bonus is worth considering. A 100% bonus with 40x wagering? Only +EV if you can find games under 2.5% house edge. A 200% bonus with 35x wagering? +EV on almost any game.

Advanced Considerations

Variance and Ruin Risk

EV tells you the average outcome, but individual results vary wildly. Even on a +EV bonus, you can lose everything. The key risk metrics:

Ruin probability — the chance you lose your entire balance before completing the wagering requirement. On a -EV bonus, this probability is high (often 60-80%). On a +EV bonus, it’s lower but still significant (20-40% depending on variance).

High-variance slots increase ruin risk. A slot with a high hit frequency and low maximum win has lower variance than a “Megaways” or high-volatility slot. For bonus clearing, lower variance is better — you want consistent small wins to grind through the requirement, not boom-or-bust spins.

Maximum Bet Limits

Most bonuses include a maximum bet size while wagering (typically $5-10 per spin). This is designed to prevent players from making a few high-variance bets and withdrawing if they get lucky. Violating the max bet rule can void your bonus and winnings.

Impact on strategy: Max bet limits push you toward more spins at smaller amounts, which means your results will converge closer to the expected value. This is actually beneficial on +EV bonuses (more likely to realise the positive expectation) and detrimental on -EV bonuses (less chance of a lucky streak saving you).

Time Limits

Bonuses typically expire if the wagering isn’t completed within 7-30 days. Factor this into your decision — if you can only play $1,000/day in total wagers, a 40x requirement on a $500 bonus ($20,000 total wagering) will take at least 20 days. If the bonus expires in 14 days, you can’t complete it without increasing your daily volume.

Game Exclusions

Some games are completely excluded from bonus wagering. Progressive jackpot slots, certain high-RTP titles (Blood Suckers, Mega Joker), and “feature buy” spins are commonly excluded. Always check the specific bonus terms for excluded games.

Sticky vs Non-Sticky Bonuses

• Non-sticky (forfeit-on-withdrawal): You can withdraw your real-money balance at any time; you only forfeit the bonus and bonus winnings. This is better for players — you can take your deposit back if things go poorly.
• Sticky (non-cashable): The bonus amount itself is never withdrawable; only winnings above the bonus amount can be withdrawn after clearing wagering. Sticky bonuses are worth less because the bonus balance isn’t “real” money.

For sticky bonuses, the EV formula changes:

Sticky Bonus EV = Probability of Profit × Average Profit − Probability of Loss × Average Loss

This requires simulation to calculate accurately, but as a rough rule: sticky bonuses are worth approximately 40-60% of what the equivalent non-sticky bonus would be.

Using the ProofBets Bonus Calculator

We’ve built all of this math into our free bonus EV calculator. Here’s how to use it:

1. Enter the bonus details — match percentage, maximum bonus amount, wagering requirement
2. Select whether wagering applies to bonus only or bonus + deposit
3. Choose your game — the calculator includes accurate house edge data for popular slots and table games
4. Set your game contribution rate — pulled from common casino terms
5. View the results — expected value, break-even point, estimated completion time, and ruin probability

The calculator also lets you compare multiple bonuses side-by-side, making it easy to determine which offer gives you the best value.

Practical Strategy: How to Approach Casino Bonuses

When to Accept a Bonus

• Wagering requirement is below the break-even point for your chosen game
• The bonus is non-sticky (you can leave with your deposit if things go poorly)
• You have enough bankroll to absorb variance during the clearing process
• Time limits are realistic for your play volume

When to Decline a Bonus

• Wagering requirement is well above the break-even point
• Wagering applies to bonus + deposit (doubles the effective requirement)
• The bonus is sticky and wagering is over 30x
• Max bet limits are extremely restrictive ($2 or less)
• Game contribution rates force you onto high-edge games

The No-Bonus Strategy

Some experienced players skip bonuses entirely. Without bonus restrictions, you can:

• Play any game without worrying about contribution rates
• Withdraw at any time without forfeiting anything
• Bet any amount without max bet restrictions
• Focus on the games you enjoy rather than those that clear wagering fastest

If a bonus is -EV, the mathematically correct decision is to decline it and play unrestricted. The emotional pull of “free money” is powerful, but the math doesn’t lie.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can a casino bonus ever be guaranteed profitable?

No. Even +EV bonuses have variance. A +EV bonus means you’ll profit on average over many attempts, but any single attempt can result in a loss. Think of it like poker — the best hand doesn’t always win, but playing +EV situations consistently leads to profit over time.

Why do casinos offer bonuses if some are +EV?

Several reasons: most players don’t calculate EV and play -EV games (high-edge slots), sticky bonus structures reduce actual payout significantly, many players violate terms (max bet, excluded games) and forfeit their bonus, and bonuses drive player acquisition even at a short-term cost to the casino. The house always has an edge in the long run.

What’s the lowest wagering requirement you’ve seen?

We’ve seen legitimate 1x wagering requirements on reload bonuses at some crypto casinos. These are almost always +EV and should be accepted immediately. For welcome bonuses, 15-20x is the lowest common range, and these are often +EV on low-edge games.

Does it matter which slots I play for bonus clearing?

Enormously. The house edge on slots ranges from under 1% (Blood Suckers at 0.54%) to over 8% (some branded slots). Playing a 1% edge slot versus a 5% edge slot can be the difference between a +EV and -EV bonus. Always check the RTP (Return to Player) before choosing a game for bonus clearing. RTP = 100% − House Edge.

How do cashback offers fit into EV calculations?

Cashback reduces your effective losses. If a casino offers 10% cashback on net losses with no wagering, your effective house edge drops by roughly 10%. A 4% house edge becomes ~3.6%. This shifts the break-even wagering requirement higher, making more bonuses +EV. Shuffle’s no-wagering cashback is particularly valuable for this reason.

Can I use this math for sports betting bonuses?

The same EV framework applies, but the “house edge” is replaced by the betting margin (vig/juice). Sports betting bonuses with rollover requirements are evaluated the same way: Bonus Amount − (Total Wagering × Effective Margin). Sharp bettors can achieve near-zero margin on certain markets, making sports betting bonuses often more +EV than casino bonuses.